Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 1.899259 2.003552 2.112662 2.235705 2.371060 2.515949 2.683474
2025-06-29 1.720701 1.862266 2.016920 2.199724 2.411634 2.651742 2.947593
2025-07-06 1.595333 1.755439 1.935393 2.154988 2.419053 2.730874 3.134062
2025-07-13 1.537298 1.715953 1.921800 2.180243 2.501642 2.896258 3.431153
2025-07-20 1.494865 1.689237 1.918071 2.212709 2.590459 3.071437 3.753764
2025-07-27 1.459932 1.667747 1.917137 2.245659 2.678892 3.249882 4.096910
2025-08-03 1.408871 1.622850 1.883464 2.232972 2.704372 3.343428 4.327757
2025-08-10 1.362987 1.581547 1.851256 2.218827 2.724876 3.429136 4.553597
2025-08-17 1.318738 1.539931 1.816019 2.197641 2.732742 3.495368 4.754432
2025-08-24 1.278003 1.500840 1.781846 2.175280 2.736299 3.553832 4.947401
2025-08-31 1.250334 1.477226 1.766496 2.177147 2.773585 3.664475 5.239434
2025-09-07 1.228899 1.460654 1.759384 2.189451 2.825981 3.801603 5.595093
2025-09-14 1.191747 1.422604 1.722532 2.158736 2.813345 3.836158 5.773387
2025-09-21 1.156190 1.385530 1.685622 2.126132 2.795677 3.860767 5.936258
2025-09-28 1.119434 1.345689 1.643459 2.083870 2.760295 3.852465 6.032494
2025-10-05 1.107844 1.339149 1.646701 2.107758 2.829389 4.026789 6.527291
2025-10-12 1.099247 1.336202 1.654558 2.138451 2.910816 4.229971 7.124372
2025-10-19 1.091236 1.333658 1.662668 2.169585 2.994645 4.445797 7.800027
2025-10-26 1.070159 1.312405 1.643302 2.157600 3.005372 4.525741 8.167161
2025-11-02 1.049741 1.291481 1.623677 2.144233 3.012681 4.599383 8.534626
2025-11-09 1.028317 1.268585 1.600464 2.124208 3.007139 4.646950 8.843816
2025-11-16 1.007544 1.246092 1.577164 2.103065 2.998318 4.686942 9.141913
2025-11-23 0.994335 1.233912 1.568546 2.104831 3.029969 4.812635 9.722274